16 dec 2005. Bijdrage geleverd door .
Datum: 10 Januari 2006
Spreker: Ir. Wilbur Perlot (Instituut Clingendael)
Locatie: Wageningen, Arboretumlaan 4, Botanisch Centrum
Aanvang 19:45, einde 21:30-22:00
Taal: Nederlands
The Possibilities for global energy cooperation in a changing geopolitical landscape
World energy consumption will continue to grow in the coming decades. Oil will remain the most important fuel; natural gas will most likely pass coal as the second fuel. Renewable energy sources will become more important, but its success is highly dependent on technological breakthroughs, goverment support and the integration of environmental costs in energy prices. Renewables account for 6.07% of total primary energy demand in 2002, with the current policies in place it will have increased to 7.91% in 2030.
Fossil fuels will remain dominant for the first half of the 21st century. The dependency of fossil fuels is not without its problems. There are uncertainties about the quantity of global oil reserves; demand for oil and to a lesser extent natural gas is increasingly shifting away from US-Europe as the traditional large consumers to US-Asia Pacific; and there are ongoing social and political difficult situations in producing countries. Despite call for reforms by US and the EU, the possibilities to effectively influence the circumstnaces in producer countries are limited. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the potential of increased comptetition for influence and resources globally and especially in the Persian Gulf make the energy sector a highly volatile business in the coming years.
Corporation among the major consumer countries to limit oil dependency, cooperate on emergency response measures and to limit GHG emissions is very necessary. Whether such cooperation will come about is dependent on larger changes in the world system, which will be discussed in this lecture.
Ir. Wilbur Perlot is researcher at the Clingendael International Energy Programme, part of the Netherlands Insitute for International Relations Clingendael. His research focuses on the effects of geopolitical changes and changes in energy patterns on the formation of an effective global regime to battle global warming. He also coordinates CIEP research into the rise of China and India as major energy consumers and its effects for security of supply in the European Union and environmental policies. He is also contributor to a report on energy and geopolitical changes in support of the joint report by the Dutch Energy Council (AER) and the Advisory Council for International Relations (AIV) on the place of energy policy in Dutch foreign policy, to be published in December 2005. He studied Rural Development Sociology in Wageningen and worked for the law and governance group of Wageningen University before joining CIEP
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